The truth about covid UK – The latest numbers and why it matters
Some days it’s up, other days it’s down. Some TV news providers have stopped giving the daily numbers altogether, which means it isn’t always easy to get an accurate picture unless you dig deep. So what’s the real truth about covid cases in the UK for October 2021? And are there any reliable predictions for the rest of 2022?
UK government stats for covid cases and deaths on 3rd October
- 30,439 new daily cases
- 242,005 new cases in the last 7 days – up 1.1% on the previous 7 days
- 43 daily deaths
- 785 deaths in the last 7 days – down just under 19% compared to the previous 7 days
This is what the government says about the way they report the data:
"The way cases are reported in England changed on 21 May 2021.
Reported cases are sometimes removed if subsequent tests are negative. This happens when cases identified through a positive rapid lateral flow test are followed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests
within 3 days
that are all negative. These cases are removed daily from 21 May 2021.
Because of this, the number of newly-reported cases may not be the same as the difference between the total number of reported cases from one day to the next.
The number of newly-reported cases in England and the UK is adjusted to take this into account, but the numbers for regions and local authorities are not adjusted. This means that for regions and local authorities, this figure does not show the actual number of new cases reported on that date."
Office of National Statistics data
The ONS’ latest headline news is that infection rate rises are being seen in England and Wales, with a drop in Scotland. According to them the estimated infected percentages of people who are not in hospitals, care homes or other institutions who had covid in the last week of September (ending 25th) were:
- England - 1.21% (1 in 85 people), compared to 1.14% (1 in 90) the previous week
- Wales - 1.76% (1 in 55 people), compared to 1.67% (1 in 60 people) the previous week
- Northern Ireland - 1.53% (1 in 65 people), compared to 1.65% (1 in 60 people) the week before
- Scotland - 1.85% (1 in 55 people), compared to 2.28% (1 in 45 people) the week before
- The positivity rate in England has gone up in groups of people aged 2, in school year 6, and school years 7 to 11
- There are ‘early signs’ of an increase in infections for people aged 70 and more
- The positivity rate dropped for people in school year 12 to those aged 24
- For people aged 35 – 69 years case numbers levelled off
- Cases have increased in the West Country, North West, Yorkshire and the Humber
- Cases fell in the North East and London
- The rest of the UK is currently ‘uncertain’ as far as the trend goes
Covid data and predictions from Worldometer
Worldometer says the UK has had 7,900,680 officially noted cases so far and 136,953 covid deaths. Their graph of daily new cases in the UK reveals a steady increase from May 24th 2001 with a couple of particularly noticeable peaks in June/July, another in early September, and a series of smaller peaks developing since then.
UK live covid map
You can check your area using this
UK-wide covid map. And
this fascinating site makes some interesting data-led predictions, projecting a regular upward trend through the rest of 2021 and into 2022.
UK covid predictions for October 2021
The mainstream media isn’t making it easy to predict what’s going to happen next. Right wing publications naturally tend to be more positive around the future, since we have a Conservative government in charge, and left wing media tend to be more negative. This means neither is particularly helpful.
Baffled by the stats? Get disinfected and stay on the safe side!
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