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It looks like a worrying 99% of all UK covid cases are down to the delta variant, and case numbers have shot up over the past week. Public Health England says the number of confirmed delta cases has climbed from 33,630 last week to 75,953 this week. And 18th June saw the WHO confirming that delta is “well on its way to becoming the dominant variant globally”, having long overtaken the alpha variant. The WHO says the delta variant is significantly more infectious, and it is also more likely to see you in hospital than any other variant.
A dramatic rise in delta cases that isn't reflected in hospitalisations
In the week up to 12th June there were around 119,000 people across the UK with covid, a number arrived at thanks to random swab testing by the Office for National Statistics and an increase from 110,000 the week before. We had 11,007 new coronavirus cases on 17th June, and that was the biggest daily increase since the middle of February 2021.
The good news? Thank goodness the rate of hospitalisations isn't rising as quickly as the number of cases, which means a lot of hospitalisations are being prevented by vaccination. But not all. The official recommendation is that if you haven't had your jabs yet, now is the time to have it done, a recommendation borne out by the people who are being hospitalised with the virus at the moment, most of whom haven't been vaccinated.
Disturbing news about natural immunity
We're seeing disturbing news about immunisation. One small study, which was released on 15th June but hasn't been peer reviewed yet, hints that a previous coronavirus infection doesn’t necessarily provide a lasting immune response. This means if you've previously tested positive for the coronavirus you might not be protected against becoming infected again, or at least not for very long.
As Eleanor Barnes at the University of Oxford, one of the authors of the research, said to The Guardian newspaper, “In our view, previous infection does not necessarily protect you long-term from SARS-CoV-2, particularly variants of concern. You shouldn’t depend on it to protect you from subsequent disease, you should be vaccinated.”
The research examined blood samples from 78 healthcare workers who tested positive for the virus from April to June 2020. 66 of them had symptoms and 12 of them had the virus but didn't display any symptoms. The scientists took blood samples every month for six months after the infection, analysing the samples for a range of different immune responses.
Apparently, six months after infection, most of the people studied who'd experienced symptoms had an immune response that could be detected, but more than 25% didn’t. Just under 92% of the non-symptomatic people didn't have any detectable antibodies at all, which means their bodies have no way to neutralise the alpha variant of the coronavirus, the one that was the most common when the study was being done. None of them had detectable levels of antibodies that could neutralise the beta variant either. Because the delta variant didn't exist at the time, the research couldn't analyse people's immunity to it.
The take-aways from the news?
There are two take-aways from this week's news. One, delta is no joke, and it's wise to do everything you can to avoid it. Two, if you haven't been vaccinated yet, whatever your age, please make an appointment as soon as you can, or as quickly as your age group allows.