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It looks a lot like England is heading for another covid wave. But is it our third or our fourth? Scientists say it’s the fourth. Apparently there’s a common misconception that the UK has only had two waves of covid, when in reality it has had three so far.
The graphs revealing infections, hospitalisations and deaths all have three peaks. The first wave was in April 2020 and the second hit us in November 2020, both caused by the original virus. The third wave, in January this year, was caused by the Kent variant. So far we’ve had three waves and three lockdowns.
While Europe is currently battling its third wave, mostly caused by the more infectious Kent variant, unless we can take immediate steps to cut the infection rate the Indian variant will cause our fourth wave and our fourth lockdown.
New Vietnam variant causes concern
Vietnam has done very well so far, with just 47 covid deaths. Sadly things are about to change if a new variant of covid gets its way. The news also highlights the fact that while Vietnam feels like a distant country, the Indian variant and the Kent variant both managed to find their way there before merging to form another new variant.
So far we know the new variant spreads quickly through air. It also replicates itself very quickly. It’s actually an Indian variant with ‘mutations that originally belonged to the UK variant’, and almost 3600 people have been infected in 31 of Vietnam’s 63 cities and provinces since late April. This already represents over half the country’s total recorded infections. Until 1st April the number sat at just 2617. Now, unless the country can head it off at the pass, infections rates are set to rocket.
China reports alarming new infections
Authorities in the Chinese city of Guangzhou, population 15 million, have seen 20 new covid infections over the last week. It might not seem like a lot but it’s enough to worry officials, who felt they had the virus under control. The spread has been both fast and strong, and infection rates in the city are growing quicker than they did in previous outbreaks. Almost half of them are down to one woman who brought the Indian variant into the city with her.
Residents in the Liwan district will have to stay at home, and markets, child care centres and entertainment venues have all been closed. Dining at indoor restaurants is banned and people in nearby areas have been asked to limit the time they spend outdoors.
More countries experiencing new infections
China and Vietnam are not alone in suffering new cases of the virus. Russia has revealed 9500 new infections over the past 24 hours, and Pakistan has recorded 1771 new confirmed cases. The Philippines’ Department of Health reports 5177 new infections, and Ethiopia registered 196 new cases. India’s total case number rose to 28,175,044 with 127,510 new cases reported in the past 24 hours, but the spike seems to be dropping, with daily case numbers at the lowest level for almost 8 weeks.
Local lockdowns in the UK
Bolton and Bedford have got the Indian variant under control and stemmed a tide of rising cases. Now Blackburn and Darwen have the worst infection rates and the 21st June ‘Freedom Day’ is at risk of delay.
What does all this mean for the future?
It’s clear that new variants haven’t stopped emerging. The Vietnam one is particularly worrying. It’s also clear that nations who fought a good fight against the virus in the early days, with minimal deaths, are just as vulnerable to new waves as countries like the UK, which haven’t done well. If the experts are right about the UK being on the brink of a new wave we could see local lockdowns emerging soon, if not more national ones.
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