University College London and Kings College London covid predictions
What’s going to happen in future as the newest covid subvariants BA4 and BA5 continue to roll their way around the world? The Dynamic Causal Modelling carried out by University College London reveals fresh peaks on the way. Are you ready? If not, did you know you can make your business covid peak-ready in a powerful and affordable way?
Covid peaks due in November 2022 and March 2023
- The next covid peak is expected in late November 2022 with a subsequent peak in mid March 2023.
- The 7 day average of daily certified deaths might peak at around 200 people a day in December 2022
- The basic reproduction number R0 is estimated to be 5.86, a 36% increase in transmission risk relative to the average since 1st February 2020. This estimate includes viral mutations and seasonal effects, and will increase as winter approaches
- The average time between exposure and becoming infectious is 2.7 days
King’s College London’s Long Covid predictions
At the same time, King’s College London has been studying Long Covid, and they’ve pinned down a prediction around whether you’ll develop ongoing covid symptoms. The work hasn’t been peer reviewed yet, but it’s worth looking at all the same.
The study analysed data from 4,182 people who tested positive for the virus and had been logging their symptoms online in the COVID Symptom Study app. The team found that people experiencing more than five different symptoms during the first week of their illness were most likely to experience long covid symptoms, specifically those lasting more than 28 days.
When will covid end?
The short answer is it won’t, at least not any time soon. One article reveals what various experts say. Some believe the virus has settled into a two-month wave cycle, described as both ‘disappointing’ and ‘discouraging’ . There are predictions around the virus slowly becoming less severe and less transmissible over time, but others are very worried about the ongoing potential for a really nasty mutation.
The optimistic view is that new variants will keep emerging, and will evade our immune systems ‘to some degree but not fully’. On another positive note, some hope it’ll take another 2-4 years for the virus to become more of a nuisance than a life threatening disease. Let’s hope they’re right.
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