England’s ‘high stakes gamble’ – Calculated risk or reckless?
“The more the virus replicates, the more chances there are for it to change. In countries where many people have been vaccinated there will be a strong selection for any variants that can evade vaccine immunity”
Depending on your world view and attitude to risk, you'll see the reduced covid restrictions as a calculated risk or a reckless gamble. While the move might be good politics, plenty of experts say it isn't good public health policy. So what are the scientists saying?
'Freedom Day' opinions are divided
It's good news that the UK's vaccination efforts are hitting one vital goal, finally separating infection from severe disease. It's clear vaccinated people are less likely to become very ill and need hospital treatment, but it isn't guaranteed. You can't know whether or not you'll avoid catching the virus – or being very ill – until you actually catch it.
While Delta is still spreading worryingly fast, hospitalisations aren’t rising at the same rate. But health secretary Sajid Javid says that, thanks to the easing, new cases could hit 100,000 a day. And that's very worrying because the more cases there are, the more risk there is of new, more dangerous variants arising.
Delta on the rampage
Delta is spreading fast. One Australian caught it simply by walking past an infected person on the street. In the Netherlands 600 people attended a night club, all of whom either tested negative or were fully vaccinated. At least 165 of them caught the Delta variant anyway. As we write many countries are struggling to control the variant. No wonder a YouGov poll reveals 71% of people think masks should still be mandatory on public transport.
We should prepare for an 'exit wave'
Experts say we will probably have to endure an 'exit wave' before long. The Delta variant means herd immunity is already way out of reach. And no nation on earth is likely to achieve 100% vaccination. To get where we need to be, as a partly-vaccinated nation, our politicians are letting covid run wild through the population despite the inevitable deaths. They hope the survivors will be 'largely immune', but plenty of us will inevitably be left suffering from Long Covid.
How many covid deaths are acceptable?
The conversation around how many deaths and severe cases are acceptable is a difficult one. If you, personally, lose a family member or friend or end up battling Long Covid for months, how will you feel? How many deaths should we simply accept as collateral damage? None? One? A thousand? And what about the potential for legal action? If you run a business, relax the restrictions for your employees, someone dies from covid and you're taken to court, how will you fare? It's got to be worth considering.
As an employer, you're now responsible for public health. It's a serious responsibility. The people who have worked safely from home are inevitably going to be put at risk, as are those who have, so far, been protected at work thank to masks, distancing and physical barriers. And what happens to people who remain just as vulnerable to covid as they were before 'Freedom Day'? For them the world has suddenly become a lot more dangerous.
Scientists recommend a more careful, staggered approach to 'freedom'
People in the know are saying removing restrictions one at a time is 'indisputably a more responsible approach'. It would also help people and businesses navigate this new landscape, where the government has effectively handed over responsibility for people's safety to individuals and employers.
At the end of the day, as the scientists say, there's only one certainty. England is taking a 'big gamble', and the world will be watching to see what happens.
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Source of all information and quotes: New Scientist magazine.









