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Some counties in England are already reporting a back-to-school hike in new covid cases amongst young people, revealing we’re nowhere near out of the woods yet. So what’s going on, and what are the scientists saying about the next couple of months?
‘Bleak’ winter predictions for covid cases in England
England is diving back into covid. A government scientific advisory committee says the number of people admitted to hospital with covid in England could shoot up to 2000 - 7000 a day before the festive season. At the moment the number of people hospitalised in England with the virus is around 1000 a day compared to just over 4000 a day in January, at the height of the early 2021 wave.
So how come, when so many of us have been vaccinated, are the covid predictions for winter 2021/22 so gloomy? And how come, if cases have recently been going down, are the scientists so worried?
Vaccines never provide 100% immunity
You might live in a place where almost everyone’s been jabbed. But no vaccine on earth, whatever the disease, provides complete protection. People who aren’t being immunised, including children, still present a risk, as do people whose vaccination hasn’t made them immune, which isn’t uncommon. That’s why scientists have long been predicting an ‘exit wave’ in parallel to the relaxation of England’s covid restrictions, and that’s what we’re seeing signs of right now.
The picture was originally complicated by the July spike we saw thanks to thousands of people meeting indoors to watch the football. Take away those cases and the picture is a lot clearer – the summer saw a steady rise in cases, now we’re reaching a peak or plateau, and that’s what scientists call a ‘wave’.
So far it’s a lower wave – And it’s all thanks to the public
So far the current wave is not as severe as the first three. The reason? Probably because people didn’t respond to the end of lockdown by going back to normal. They wisely took the government’s move out of lockdown with a large pinch of salt, not returning to their old levels of social mixing. As the SPI-M-O committee, which advises the UK government, said, “The population has not reduced their cautious behaviours as dramatically as was considered possible.”
On the bright side plenty of us have built up a really good level immunity from infection, vaccination and booster jabs. On the less bright side immunity levels drop over time, and there’s an increasing risk of scary new variants.
Apparently before covid people would have contact with an average of 11 people a day, now we’re having contact with an average of 3 people a day, a dramatic difference. Add this to the fact that many people still only feel comfortable meet others outdoors and you can see why the latest wave has been suppressed.
While 75% of us are still wearing face masks, the percentage is dropping as time passes. It’s not going to be possible to meet outdoors for much longer as winter approaches. Schools are a covid time bomb waiting to go off. And people are increasingly going back to work in offices as well as using public transport. With most of the country’s public spaces and many offices very badly ventilated, no wonder things are looking so dodgy.
The most likely scenario? Scientific modeling reveals an R number of 1.1 and 2000 hospitalisations a day is the most likely outcome. But as once scientist said, it’s probably wise to
“hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.”
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