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It appears the two super-infectious covid omicron variants, BA.4 and BA.5, are pushing covid cases in England up again, and it’s a dramatic rise. The Office for National Statistics' latest survey reveals case numbers have shot up by over 300,000 in just a week. The week before showed an estimated 797,500 people in England had the virus, 1 in 70 of us. The latest numbers show around 1,131,000 of us have covid, around 1 in 50. Australia, the US and UK are all, apparently, on track for BA.5 to dominate, and there’s some evidence to show both variants cause more severe disease than omicron itself. They’re both more transmissible too, better at evading previous immunity.
Will England see a BA.4 and BA.5 wave?
Can we expect the subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 to cause another wave, and if so how big will it be? Australia is already bowing under the strain, as is the USA and parts of Europe.
Let’s take a look at previous omicron subvariants. BA.1 caused a massive wave in South Africa before going global. The BA.2 wave began before BA.1 ended, causing a second wave in some countries. While there were more BA.1 and BA.2 cases than previous waves, the death rate was lower thanks to widespread immunity from vaccinations and past infections. It also soon became clear that BA.1 and BA.2 were less likely to cause severe disease than delta.
On the other hand, when BA.1 and BA.2 hit countries which had managed to steer mostly clear of covid so far, like South Korea, they struggled to contain both subvariants and there were many more deaths. Hong Kong suffered particularly badly because of high case numbers, low vaccination levels in older people, and hospitals failing to cope.
The BA.2 wave is still with us. In England cases have dropped sharply, but there’s a caveat – reduced testing means we’re not 100% certain what’s going on right now. But we’re definitely seeing a sharp rise in BA.4 and BA.5 cases here and abroad. Both only differ from omicron by a few mutations. And both are clearly more contagious, as well as better at evading antibodies in vaccinated people and those who’ve already recovered from BA.1 or BA.2.
BA.1 and BA.2 enter human cells in a different way from delta. This makes them less likely to infect the lungs, one reason why the symptoms are less severe. But a team of scientists has found that BA.5 has ‘switched back’ to entering cells in the same way as delta. And that’s worrying. Thankfully most of us in the UK still have some immunity.
So far, South Africa’s BA.4 and BA.5 wave has proved milder than most. Portugal’s BA.5 wave is driving hospitalisations and deaths up to almost the level they were at the peak of the BA.1 wave. Nobody knows, yet, why Portugal is suffering more than South Africa.
It’s possible that BA.2 infections might give people better protection than BA.1 against BA.4 and BA.5. Because the UK’s BA.2 wave was bigger than Portugal’s, we might be in a better position to fight it. In a country like China, where fewer people have been jabbed or the jabs are less effective, we could see much more severe BA.4 and BA.5 waves.
What are the experts advising?
Experts say countries should focus on people who haven’t had at least three doses of vaccine, making sure everyone gets fully jabbed. You might also want to wear masks or reduce socialising. And you might want to ventilate your building better. You can also harness our popular LED UVC lamps to keep air and surfaces clear of covid, cleaning everything quickly and safely. While none of this will stop more waves, it will help reduce their impact as well as save more people from the ongoing risk of long covid.
Sources:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/covid-infections-warnings-wave-111438642.html
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2324374-how-big-a-covid-19-wave-could-omicron-subvariants-ba-4-and-ba-5-cause/