UK: +44 1379 658 721
Ireland: +353 89 221 3723
USA: +1 754 252 3536
Middle East - N. Africa: + 971 52 873 4738
Australia: +61 3 9310 5259
BA.5 has fast become the dominant covid variant in the USA, where the previously-dominant BA.2.12.1 variant is fading fast, having peaked at around 63% of cases five weeks ago.
In the USA and elsewhere, the latest covid wave is being fuelled by more transmissible omicron subvariants including BA.4 and BA.5. BA.5 is the most worrying, the most dominant of all. In the USA it accounted for an estimated 53.6% of new infections last week. The 4th July celebrations are likely to result in many more cases.
The US Centers for Disease Control says it’s ‘entirely possible’ there were more new daily infections in the USA on 4th July than at any time since the omicron wave. So what’s going on over the Atlantic? And how does the UK’s BA.4 and .5 wave compare? Thanks to Intelligencer for the insight.
BA.5’s progress in the USA
The overall USA test positivity rate, which is the go-to measure for accuracy over there, reveals a seven-day average infection rate of more than 17% for the first time since February. On July 8th New York’s rate alone had shot up to 15.4%, the highest since January.
Just the week before the city had removed its colour-coded covid risk alert system. The mayor claimed it was an ‘old weapon’ fighting an ‘old war’, insisting New York City’ covid levels were at a ‘good, stable place’. This is clearly nonsense in the face of the new BA.5 wave, but so far there’s no replacement system on the cards.
The CDC says community transmission is still high in more than 87% of America’s counties, and remains ‘substantial or higher’ in more than 95%.
The good news – So far, USA BA.5 Hospitalisations aren’t as bad as omicron
Covid hospitalisations are steadily moving upwards, and have been going up since April. So far they’re a long way off the levels seen in the omicron wave. Levels of deaths and intensive care referrals are going up more slowly, still low at the moment. And vaccines are still preventing severe illness most of the time. Vaccines are finally being given to young children over there, too. And if severe illness does happen, medical experts now know what to do to help people. All this is good news.
The bad news – vaccines and immunity from previous infection are less effective
The bad news? BA.5 and BA.5 are different. Both vaccines and prior infection are fast becoming less effective at preventing infection and re-infection, and they’re also a bit less effective at preventing hospitalisation, especially in the many older people in the USA who are either un-boosted or under-boosted.
What will a large BA.5 wave do?
In the best-case scenario, the new wave will be merely ‘disruptive’. At worst it is predicted to increase the risk of more people getting Long Covid, and also increase the risk of new and more dangerous covid variants developing. Right now in the USA, the full impact of multiple re-infections isn’t known. But it’ll be clear before long, since it’s almost inevitable.
How scary is BA.5?
BA.5 might just turn out to be the worst covid variant so far. It comes with a suite of unique mutations that make it very well equipped at avoiding antibodies, so it should be good at re-infecting people who have already had a previous omicron variant. Scientists are currently scrambling to establish the risks it poses.
The chance of even worse variants emerging remains ‘very real’. For example the emergence of BA.2.75, an omicron subvariant that has just turned up in India, is attracting scientific attention right now.
How about the UK?
Here in the UK we’re also seeing a surge of new infections thanks to BA.4 and BA.5. So are many other countries. In most the two new variants haven’t resulted in severe illness, probably because of the immunity and hybrid immunity most people have by now. On the other hand their new evolutionary advantages are very worrying, driving covid ever-onwards. The predictions? The current covid wave is getting bigger fast, and it may last for a long time.

Stay safe from BA.4 and BA.5
Our UVC LED covid killing units are easy to fit, easy to use, affordable, and work hard to kill all the covid variants so far. It also kills horrible diseases like Ebola, MERS, SARS, and Hospital Acquired Infections quickly. It’s the only real way to keep a space clean and safe within minutes, using powerful UCV light. If you’d like to keep everyone at your place safe, get in touch with us to explore the potential.