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Measles is humanity’s most contagious virus. Could covid become as easy to catch as measles? If not, what else might happen? We take a look at the potential for a covid variant that doesn’t come with such a deadly risk profile - but is so ultra-infectious it becomes very hard to avoid.
Is there an upper limit to virus contagion?
Viruses usually get more contagious over time. This happens because natural selection favours mutations that improve a virus’s ability to spread. The reproduction or R number for measles is anything from 12-18. In a group of people with no vaccination against measles and no prior immunity, just one person could spread measles to 12 - 18 others.
How come measles doesn’t just keep on getting more and more infectious? Limits inside the measles virus itself mean it can’t evolve anywhere near as fast as coronaviruses, influenza, or HIV. And that’s why we only need one measles jab as children. Measles doesn’t create new variants, it just is what it is.
Covid is different. It evolves quickly and easily. The late 2019 original’s R number was 2.5, delta’s R number was around 6, and while we’re still not sure about the R number of omicron it does seem to be more contagious than previous variants. It certainly infects cells differently and has definitely evolved to be far better at transmission.
This hints that future new variants could also end up being a whole lot more contagious. They could even end up more infectious than measles, and that’ll be a record breaker. In the words of one scientist,
“There’s no reason to think not.”
On the other hand measles blends a number of elements to become the perfect spreader. It sheds itself like mad when it infects someone. It quietly spreads for four days before the infected person even realises they’re ill. It spreads through coughs and sneezes, and stays in the air for as long as two hours. And because it is a 100% human virus, not found in any other animal, it’s designed exclusively to infect humans. Thankfully, measles is special.
Very contagious viruses eventually hit an upper limit beyond which they can’t go, simply because humans develop ‘population immunity’. Omicron cases are falling in some places now, for example, because so many of us have developed a specific immunity to it.
The hope is that the next variant – because there’s no doubt there will be another – won’t cause worse symptoms as well as being more contagious. That’s the big worry scientists are facing right now.
Against this landscape, the world’s leaders are working in different ways.
What the world is doing about covid right now
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