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The death toll has exceeded one and a half million people. We’ve seen more than 65.4 million cases so far, although the USA’s Johns Hopkins University says the actual number of cases will be much higher. Here’s the latest news about Covid-19, the virus that continues to change our lives, and is here to stay.
The UK’s latest R number
Here in the UK the average number of people each infected person infects has just dropped a little bit to something between 0.8 and 1, down from 0.9 – 1 the week before. But remember, there’s always a time-lag in the data used to pinpoint the R number.
It might be the case that the number of new infections is shrinking 1-3% a day, an estimate that dovetails with the latest random swab testing survey from the Office for National Statistics. They reckon we had 25,700 new coronavirus cases per day in England during the week up to 28th November, down from 38,900 during the week before 14th November.
London’s fall in confirmed cases is starting to level out right now, which means the city might have to go into Tier 3 shortly, particularly the outer London boroughs.
USA faces a ‘terrible’ January
The American health expert Anthony Fauci says the USA faces a terrible January. Hospitalisations and deaths are already breaking new daily records. Just before the weekend we saw 217,664 new cases, 100,667 people hospitalised, and 2879 daily deaths in the USA. Every one of those deaths affects a family and breaks hearts. That’s an awful lot of heartbreak.
Now Fauci says things are due to get a lot worse over there thanks to a Thanksgiving surge on top of a Christmas surge, with January being predicted as the worst month yet. In California alone, hospital admissions have shot up 86% in the last 14 days, and the state is facing strict new restrictions.
So how is China faring – and why?
China, where the pandemic arose, is seeing very few new cases or deaths these days. Wuhan is more or less back to normal. So what are they doing right? China never did bring about a nationwide lockdown. Now they say ‘community transmission’ in China is low, apart from a few localised spikes involving no more than a few hundred cases each time.
China had 80,000 confirmed cases in early March, and in the 8 months since then there have only been 7000 more recorded cases. Can this be true? There are some stories claiming under-reporting, but China has very strict penalties for under-reporting. And China’s people tend to be more compliant, on the whole, than we are in the western world.
One study involving the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the University of Oxford analysed China’s Covid-19 data in May using a clever technique to detect fraud. It revealed China’s distribution of cases was similar to the USA and Italy, and no fraud was detected. It appears clear that China has actually succeeded in containing the virus, with absolutely no evidence of major epidemics in Chinese cities. In fact China’s economy grew during the third quarter of 2020.
Aggressive intervention seems to be the name of the game in China, the route to their success. They contained outbreaks incredibly quickly with strict city lockdowns, bans on domestic travel and mandatory quarantines. In June one market saw an outbreak. The Chinese government immediately closed down several districts surrounding the market, conducting mass testing and contact tracing. It’s a lot more expensive than the public health measures used elsewhere in the world, being much more resource-intensive, but doing so ‘minimises longer term disruption’. All it takes is 2 or 3 weeks of strict restrictions and everyone can get back to normal. China has also avoided a second wave by banning foreign nationals from the country.
Different stages, same conclusion
When we look at the numbers it’s plain that every country’s different approach to lockdowns, quarantines, tiers and so on has had a different effect. Some nations are emerging into a world that looks more like normal, including China. Some, like the UK, are still battling the second wave, starting to hope we’re getting there. Coronavirus cases in Poland passed one million recently. A country with a shortage of doctors and medical supplies, it’s struggling to cope with its second wave. The USA, the worst hit of all right now, is falling into an abyss of horrific proportions. We wish them luck.
For every country, though, the prognosis remains the same. Vaccine or no vaccine, the coronavirus has embedded itself in the human race, spread to any number of animals – wild and domestic – and is highly unlikely to go away, never to be seen again. Our future, in all probability, will be studded with outbreaks that we’ll need to handle on an individual basis. If enough people refuse vaccination, these outbreaks will be more common, and we might even see large spikes.
Right now the future is looking brighter than it has since the beginning, when all this kicked off. But we’ll still need to be vigilant, disinfect public spaces, and keep up the same new, high standards of hygiene that we’re becoming used to.
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