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Omicron’s unusually high transmissibility means it’s a worry. Yes, it comes with a lower risk of hospitalisation, 15-20% lower than delta. If you’re hospitalised you’re 40-45% less likely to be in hospital for a night or more, and a study at Imperial College London has found a ‘moderate decrease in hospitalisation risk’ for omicron patients. But at the same time the research suggests there’s ‘no reduction in the severity of omicron’ compared to delta for people who have been jabbed twice, which hints omicron isn’t actually any milder than delta. At the same time it looks like two jabs isn’t going to be enough to combat omicron, and a booster will only keep you safe for a short time.
As Deepti Gurdasani from Queen Mary University of London said before the festivities kicked off,
“Multi-layered mitigations and limiting socialisation over Christmas is still vitally important.”
Obviously that didn’t happen. We’re not likely to see further restrictions in England before the New Year, either. And now there’s a new study that appears to show immunity from vaccines wanes faster with omicron. Maybe the boosters we’re being given won’t keep us safe for very long. Here’s the science.
Omicron immunity via booster vaccines doesn’t last long
Apparently the protection against omicron that we get from booster vaccines starts to drop away within ten weeks. The science, by the UK Health Security Agency, analysed around 147,000 people with delta and around 68,500 omicron cases. They discovered the Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are ‘less effective against omicron than delta’.
If you’ve had two initial Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs, the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna boosters are about 60% effective at stopping symptomatic omicron 2 - 4 weeks after your third dose. But it drops back dramatically to 35 – 45% within 10 weeks. If you’ve had two initial doses of Pfizer/BioNTech, Pfizer booster protection falls from 70% at 2-4 weeks to 45% 10 weeks later. Moderna fares better at 70 – 75% protection for up to 9 weeks.
The UKHSA also says omicron patients are 50 – 70% less at risk of a hospital stay compared with delta, more than the 15-20% found by an earlier Imperial College London study. Obviously the omicron picture is still developing as it rages around the UK, in England in particular. According to SAGE, modelling predicts omicron’s severity would need to be about 90% lower than delta to avoid the levels of hospitalisation we saw in previous waves.
In the meantime The UK keeps recording record-breaking daily case numbers and the Office for National Statistics says around 1.4 million of us had the virus in the week before Xmas, the highest since autumn 2020.
How do I keep my customers safe from covid?
What’s the future for omicron? It could hit us hard then fade fast. It could stick around for months. It could morph into another variant simply because so many of us are catching it and we’re giving it so many opportunities to do so.
Some say the only way to stay safe, keep customers safe and keep your business going is to shut down. We say use one of our proven covid disinfection robots run on beautiful, clean UVC light that’s lethal to coronaviruses and makes spaces safe within minutes. It could make all the difference between survival and going under.
When the future is this uncertain, we’ll bring some certainty to your business. Let’s talk.