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The Covid crisis in India is ramping up. Officials say it’s set to get worse before it gets better. Experts say India’s experiences serve as a horrible warning that covid-19 complacency is disastrous. At the same time the threat of a new autumn wave in the UK is fading. Here’s the latest covid news.
India’s terrible covid experiences teach us all a lesson
India has set an undesirable new record after yet another day breaks records for the most daily coronavirus cases reported in any country on the planet. If you’ve seen the news stories showing people dying on the streets, lining up in their thousands outside hospitals, suffering from a national shortage of oxygen and running out of wood for funeral pyres, you’ll know just how distressing it is.
Could the same happen in the UK? Yes, of course it could. All it would take is a dangerous new variant or an unchecked surge and our hospitals could also be over-run. But, at this stage in the game, it can only happen if we get complacent.
So what’s going on in India? And are we really due another surge this autumn?
Why is India suffering from the world’s biggest covid outbreak?
On 4th May the Indian covid case rate soared to 20 million. Why is India suffering so much? The short answer is, nobody really understands why covid has become so rampant in India.
It is fast becoming clear than every country on earth has been under-reporting the number of infections. Scientists say the number of new daily cases in India could be a lot higher than the 350,000 being reported, and that’s a massive difference.
Some reports hint that the death toll could also be a great deal worse than officials believe, maybe as much as 10 times higher. When you add the fact that India has only two critical care beds per 100,000 people, compared with 34 per hundred thousand in the USA, and it’s no wonder India’s health care system is collapsing.
Just a couple of months ago the country looked like it had almost beaten covid. How did India manage to avoid such a huge surge for so long? Some experts say India’s disastrous experience is down to scary new variants, others blame it on covid restrictions being relaxed, or on the population of India being careless, or on the huge political rallies and religious festivals that have gone ahead despite the danger. Others say the vaccine protocols in India have been mismanaged, leaving less than 9% of all Indians having at least one dose. The real story is probably multi-factoral.
The case numbers in India began to increase in February, which should have been a clear warning signal. But, like the UK, India’s politicians ‘failed to grasp’ what happens when exponential growth goes wild and nobody does enough about it. The situation just goes to show how very fast things can go wrong once the delicate balance starts to tip. India is what can happen when politicians don’t properly understand the implications of ‘exponential growth’.
New predictions for a third UK wave this autumn
Not so long ago Boris Johnson said a third wave in the UK was ‘probable’. Now, thankfully, scientists believe the risk might be reducing. Professor Neil Ferguson of
Imperial College London
says the current data is ‘very encouraging’, with the nation back on track for ‘returning to life’ by the summer.
On the other hand while cases are plateauing right now, things could easily start to go the other way. With luck all we’ll see is a small increase in cases and deaths later this year. But Professor Ferguson also says his team remains ‘concerned’ about what will happen in late summer and early autumn – which, if there’s going to be a surge, is when it’ll happen.
At the same time vaccine performance is looking even more encouraging. The latest data says if you get infected after being vaccinated, you’re a lot less infectious than you would be without a vaccination.
The message from the professionals?
Scientists say we need to remain wary and stay careful if we want to avoid becoming another India and want to swerve a covid surge in the autumn. Experts are insisting that social distancing needs to stay in place even if the numbers keep falling. With things remaining on a knife edge, it makes a great deal of sense to take the same amount of care we’re used to taking, keeping a very careful eye on new case levels and acting instantly if things start to go slide.