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Could the covid virus merge with another virus to cause an even worse threat? Yes, it could. Could covid gradually evolve to become less threatening, like the four main coronaviruses that cause the common cold? Yes, it could. And there's the problem – this thing could go either way, and it could just as easily go neither way. The best thing we can do in uncertain times like this? Keep an eye on the science and prepare to act quickly when we need to.
Part of 'acting quickly' involves being prepared, and being prepared involves tweaking the design of the buildings we all use. Right now buildings are not designed with virus prevention in mind. But in the opinion of increasing numbers of experts, this must change.
The journal 'Science' contains an article that was originally reported in the LA Times. In it, 39 experts of different kinds demanded a 'paradigm shift' in building design and ventilation systems. The report reveals to international health authorities how the coronavirus spreads through microscopic particles known as aerosols that spread through the air, and it's clear that the biggest risk of covid spreading is indoors. New buildings are not designed to stop viruses spreading. In fact modern tower block offices and other commercial buildings are usually engineered to save energy and make sure the temperature is right. Public health doesn't come into it... yet.
It's good to know that many of the technologies mentioned in the article already exist. On the downside, so far they haven't been used in a 'targeted effort' to cut the spread of diseases. The scientists behind the article recommend future buildings are designed to include systems to detect the times when a crowd develops, instantly adjusting the ventilation to increase the turn-over of fresh air. They also suggest fitting air monitors as standard, to display air quality in real time.
What about the cost? Apparently estimates suggest the required systems would push up the building cost by less than one percent, an extra cost that will be more than offset by preventing diseases like viruses from spreading in the first place. When an everyday outbreak of influenza can have a dramatic effect on a company's profits, it makes a lot of sense. In a pandemic it's a no-brainer.
So the cost of infections can be massive, but at the same time the price of preventing infections is relatively low. All the same, the authors of the report predict such measures will be 'met with resistance from building developers, owners and operators'. Why?
One issue might be the extra energy needed to heat and cool larger amounts of air, pushing it through high-grade filters and bigger fans. Could this affect efforts to combat climate change? It could, but as one expert said the pandemic makes this the perfect time to figure out how to balance the equation. This is no time to revert to business as usual when it's entirely possible for architects and engineers to solve the problem, perhaps by switching systems between energy saving and disease prevention as and when required.
While early results were not conclusive, it's now totally clear that covid spreads through aerosol particles. If we'd known earlier the world could have saved countless lives, but it is what it is. In the past health authorities have been reluctant to accept the theory of transmission via aerosols, but have gladly accepted the theory that spread takes place via larger droplets. In fact inhaling aerosols is the 'dominant route of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses'. It took an open letter to the WHO signed by 239 experts from 32 countries before they accepted that covid was indeed spread via aerosol particles, but even then they reacted slowly.
According to one scientist the WHO is still not going far enough, focusing on most transmissions occurring within one metre or three feet. Nor do they have any standards in place for controlling the spread of respiratory viruses inside buildings.
Building owners currently face the potentially expensive and often confusing task of disinfecting their premises against covid. The list of requirements is still increasing, along with the existing climate change deadlines and fire control, and some fear they'll reject any extra safety measures added on top of all that. At the same time increasing numbers of building owners are disinfecting their buildings using UVC tech like ours, which is affordable and extremely efficient as well as highly effective and safe.
Will building design fall into line when future pandemics are not just a threat but a certainty? Let's hope so. In the meantime, you need our UVC disinfection machines!