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The evidence is in, and it's damning. Countries that took strict pandemic suppression measures from the offset have done better in all sorts of ways, including health, wealth and civil liberties. Countries like the UK which decided to take a softer approach, mitigating rather than eliminating the virus, have done a lot worse.
Australia, Japan and South Korea have been praised for their covid-19 control strategies, ranked top five out of 37 rich countries. Along with Iceland and New Zealand, they took the right measures at the right time and have experienced the best possible outcomes for health, economic growth and civil liberties.
Will the UK join them? A key study published in The Lancet has a lot of relevance to our ongoing efforts to end the pandemic. Apparently all we need to do is move to an 'elimination strategy' and the UK could quickly become much healthier and wealthier.
The scientists involved in the study classified nations into two groups. The five elimination countries, where leaders took the maximum action 'at all times' to suppress covid, were compared to 32 mitigation countries. There were far fewer deaths in the five elimination countries compared to the rest. The quickly-imposed lockdowns they set in place, designed to eliminate the virus completely, ultimately ended up shorter and less strict than the UK's painfully long, less strict run of three lockdowns.
So what does a covid elimination strategy look like?
An elimination strategy involves means mass testing, supporting infected people to isolate, tracing their contacts and helping their contacts self-isolate. It also means strict border surveillance and fast, tough lockdowns whenever they're needed. As a whole, this approach is what the experts call 'infectious disease class 101'. Why hasn't the UK pursued this tactic?
The UK government has criticised strict elimination measures for damaging economies and civil liberties. In real life, according to the results of actual research, strict elimination performs better all round. And that's why Australia, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea have done so well compared to the UK.
As Alice Roberts, a SAGE member at the University of Birmingham, says, there is a “very firm evidence base that an elimination strategy is best for the economy, best for health, and impinges the least on civil liberties, which seems to be the main argument against it”.
Like the UK, four of the elimination countries are island nations. This probably makes them easier to control. The other one, South Korea, has just one very tightly controlled land border. While isolation has helped these countries succeed, other non-island nations came close, which means the UK could succeed. Denmark, for example, almost fell under the elimination country category but failed simply because so many Danes living in Sweden kept crossing and re-crossing the Øresund Bridge.
What the analysis means
The analysis should inform policies going forwards, but with 'Freedom Day' on the cards for 19th July 2021, there's no chance England is going to become an elimination country any time soon. As the only country on earth prepared to leave future covid safety decisions up to the people, we face an uncertain and potentially disastrous future. Right now the experts say we just don't have a high enough percentage of vaccinated people to be safe. The crisis isn’t over. With more transmissible variants on the prowl, and the risk of more emerging thanks to mass infections, countries like the UK risk 'repeating mistakes of the past'.
We can still pivot to an elimination strategy
It's good to know it's never too late to change tack. If we do, the UK could end up healthier, wealthier and more free. All we need to do is overcome the incorrect assumptions those in power keep on making about an elimination strategy damaging civil liberties, economy, and health.
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